Celtic’s home defeat by RB Salzburg in December 2018 was shrugged off, comprehensive though it was for anybody who watched. Brendan Rodgers had guided Celtic to the knockout phase of the Europa League, offsetting part of the chaos created by a Champions League qualifying exit at the hands of AEK Athens. The riches associated with the Red Bull model meant that the prominence of Salzburg, who won six group matches out of six, could be placed in fiscal context. Celtic beat another of the RB clan, Leipzig, to second place.
This was a decent Celtic side. Kieran Tierney’s development was moving apace. Mikael Lustig, Callum McGregor, Scott Sinclair, Scott Brown, Tom Rogic, Ryan Christie and Odsonne Édouard featured. “This is another big step in the progress of our players,” said Rodgers. Eight weeks later, Valencia’s 2-0 win in Glasgow effectively ended the last-32 tie after 90 minutes. “We made too many mistakes,” said Rodgers. “You can get away with it domestically sometimes but at this level if you bring pressure on to yourself, it is difficult for you. We made basic mistakes.”
Within days, Rodgers was named as the manager of Leicester City. He had always planned a return to the Premier League but frustration over Celtic’s inability or unwillingness to match his ambitions in a world beyond Motherwell had not been masked for months. When the last 32 of the Europa League was as good as he felt it could get, Rodgers needed out. He was fed up overseeing learning curves. The key curiosity associated with his return to Celtic this summer was why the 50-year-old believed things could be so different in tenure number two.
Almost four years on, Celtic haven’t returned to Europe post-Christmas. Ange Postecoglou was lauded for domestic success yet managed to get knocked out of three European competitions in the 2021-22 season. Last year’s grim Champions League campaign was glossed over only because Rangers were spluttering to the worst sectional performance in the competition’s history. The rest of Scottish football could laugh itself silly but for the grim reality that this is as good as it gets for the nation’s domestic teams when stakes are raised.
Celtic’s two Champions League outings thus far could be used as case studies in self-harm. They were the stronger side before losing the softest of openers against Feyenoord in Rotterdam. Two red cards and a second goal followed. Those dismissed, Gustaf Lagerbielke and Odin Thiago Holm, are the kind of project signings the club specialises in to routine profit success. Their errors were befitting of Champions League rookies.
Lazio, who at that stage were toiling in Serie A, seemed content to leave Glasgow with a point before stoppage-time Celtic aberrations allowed them to snatch the most unlikely of wins. “There is learning there,” Rodgers said. “You have to secure the ball in the game and if you’re not going to win it at that stage, you certainly can’t lose it.” This sounded eerily familiar.
Celtic’s board will rail against the notion the football department is handed insufficient tools. Peter Lawwell, in his most recent chairman’s statement, pointed towards £66.4m of investment in player registrations over two and a half years. The subtext: we back managers. Celtic remain a well-run, self-sufficient business but it is one with £95.4m of operating costs. For that outlay, supporters must demand far better European return. Rangers turned heads with a fantastic run to the 2022 Europa League final, showing Celtic precisely what can be done. A mockery was made of the gulf between major leagues and the rest as Rangers saw off Borussia Dortmund.
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On Wednesday evening, Atlético Madrid are unlikely to provide Rodgers with margin for error. The manager is correct to emphasise his team have been competitive over match days one and two, even if this is the tone of a plucky underdog. It has come to the point where Celtic success cannot be anticipated, no matter the elite opposition. Barcelona were vanquished in 2012. Manchester United and Milan suffered at Celtic Park in the same era. Celtic have not won a Champions League group match at home in a decade. The run can be derided; more intriguing is how Rodgers, who perceives himself as an elite coach, plans to buck the trend.
Rodgers has made great play of the difficulty of winning matches in Scotland, as if trying to convince himself rather than anybody else. Celtic are under-18s in an under-10s league, aside the odd temporary rumble from Ibrox. This is what makes European status all the more important. Rodgers knew this all too well the last time. Educating players ill-equipped for any given environment has a shelf life.